A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
